[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090034
KYZ000-TNZ000-090130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...SWRN AND S-CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 090034Z - 090130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXTEND INTO PARTS OF S-CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS SWRN KY AND WRN TN...WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO
CHRISTIAN/TODD COUNTIES KY APPEARING TO BE ENHANCED BY EWD MOVING
PORTION OF OUTFLOW. OTHER STRONG STORMS HAVE FLARED UP RECENTLY
FARTHER S INTO WRN TN...AND TRENDS HAVE SHOWN MORE ORGANIZATION
WITHIN THE PAST HR OR SO. BNA 00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. SVR WIND GUST POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS W OF I-65...WHERE THE
AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S F. HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND A SHORT TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR A SVR WIND THREAT...A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37278811 37308699 37098629 36628595 35448630 35068720
            35088830 35548903 37108829 37278811
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