[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081701
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-081800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081701Z - 081800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN KY INTO
MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN
EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELD FROM ERN KY...SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SEVERAL ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ATTEMPTING
TO PENETRATE LEVELS WHERE GLACIATION WILL BE INDUCED.  12Z SOUNDING
FROM BNA EXHIBITED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8 C/KM...AND
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED.  AS CONVECTION EVOLVES...ESEWD PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT
IN TSTM COMPLEX MOVING TOWARD WRN NC BY EARLY EVENING.  DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36218633 36858457 37918275 37458170 36028249 35078555
            36218633
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