[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040022
KYZ000-TNZ000-040115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 317...318...

VALID 040022Z - 040115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 317...318...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY STILL
INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 01-03Z.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/ WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOUISVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...TOWARD THE
DANVILLE/BEREA/LONDON VICINITIES.  INFLOW OF MOIST AIR PERHAPS
CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO THE 01-03Z
TIME FRAME.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THAT
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

OTHERWISE...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB SPEED
MAXIMUM...WHICH MAY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE STATE BORDER...TOWARD THE HOPKINSVILLE/BOWLING
GREEN AREAS.  THIS IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SIZABLE CAPE...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
APPEARS GENERALLY WEAKER.

..KERR.. 07/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37898544 37948505 37718426 37208403 36968483 37098615
            36858668 36528737 36448806 36748781 36948761 37188740
            37308694 37408604 37898544

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