[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180548
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-180715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Areas affected...Northern LA...west-central to northeast
MS...northwest AL...middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...

Valid 180548Z - 180715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for localized damaging winds and perhaps a
brief tornado or two continues across valid portion of Tornado Watch
518, with some threat eventually extending to the south and east of
the watch overnight.

DISCUSSION...At 0530Z, a nearly continuous band of convection
continues along and just behind a cold front stretching from central
LA into middle TN. The bulk of the convection has been undercut by
either outflow or the synoptic front, but convective elements along
the leading edge have continued to produce strong wind gusts and
sporadic damage reports from northern MS into TN. While
surface-based instability is decreasing with time, very strong
low-level flow and favorable wind profiles will continue to support
a threat of sporadic damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado or
two along the leading edge of the convection. Very strong pressure
rises behind the front will also support strong post-frontal winds
after the strongest convection moves through.

Across portions of western/central AL not in watch 518, some severe
threat may materialize later tonight, though it remains unclear if
downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Further
southwest across portions of central LA into southwest MS, some
threat for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will continue
into the overnight hours, and this area will continue to be
monitored as well for potential watch extensions or new watch
issuance.

..Dean/Edwards.. 12/18/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30919331 32519190 33988954 35238783 36248664 36598589
            36218537 35138609 34198742 33148908 32229040 31219173
            30519262 30919331
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet