[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091848
WVZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-091945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...ERN KY...WV...MD
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091848Z - 091945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM FROM MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO WV. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WAS GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING EWD ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN TN INTO WRN
WV. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS ERN
KY...WHERE RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
MIDDLE NT INTO FAR SRN WV ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST FAIRLY STRONG INSOLATION...BUT ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
MARGINAL SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN 20-30 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 1
KM AGL /SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH SWWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN/. SMALL HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT CAN ATTAIN BRIEF ROTATION...GIVEN
RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH OF THESE THREATS SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   39697973 39667855 39537838 39137873 37878087 36228357
            35648541 35808645 36338657 36868580 37518397 38488263
            39168137 39428038 39697973
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