[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 050127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050127
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-050730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN
MO...WRN KY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 050127Z - 050730Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
SUBSTANTIAL ICING AND HEAVY SNOW.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING
PHASING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES OVER THE ARKLATEX -- WHERE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS
ONGOING -- ARE STIMULATING GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SUBFREEZING
SFC TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT
FROM NW TO SE...SUPPORTING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.

A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR THE MEMPHIS
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SAMPLES
ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 900 MB TO 650 MB...WITH MAXIMUM
WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE
MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS FROM PARTS OF SWRN TN INTO NWRN
MS AND E-CNTRL AR...WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.03 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST RATES WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
SUBSTANTIAL ICING MAY ENSUE.

A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE TOWARD SLEET AND THEN SNOW WILL OCCUR
NWWD/NWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO NERN AR...FAR SERN MO...AND
WRN KY...WHERE ELEVATED WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOLER. SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES OF ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH
PER HOUR MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER
HOUR ALSO POSSIBLE. WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR SNOW TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PREDOMINANT FROM NW TO SE AS DEEPER COLD AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

..COHEN.. 03/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34789242 35629154 37558786 37198687 36598715 35628866
            34659038 34089235 34789242


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