[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292227
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-300000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OHIO...KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
TENNESSEE/WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...

VALID 292227Z - 300000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
00-02Z TIME FRAME.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL BE
NEEDED...EITHER EAST OR SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 369...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...DOWNSTREAM OF AT LEAST ONE IN
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW...MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW.  THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  SO WHILE STORMS ARE TENDING TO SPREAD FROM A MORE
MOIST/STRONGLY HEATED AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THERE COULD STILL BE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THOUGH EARLY EVENING.

DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING...
STORMS ARE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE CELLS WITH
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES...AND SMALL MULTICELL STORM
CLUSTERS...IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  DEEP
LAYER...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MAY BE ENHANCED A BIT ALONG THE
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WHERE A TORNADO
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.  OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOW BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

..KERR.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37158736 38308500 39308407 39278253 38578115 37018314
            35698609 35538897 36488887 37158736
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