[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210311
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / NERN AR / SRN IL / WRN KY / SWRN IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445...

VALID 210311Z - 210415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF WRN KY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 03Z...PADUCAH VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LONGER-DURATION SHORT-SEGMENT BOW OVER WRN HOPKINS
COUNTY KY WITH AN OBSERVED MOTION OF 270/35 KT.  THIS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY MERGED WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD
THROUGH EXTREME SERN IL AND SWRN INDIANA...FORMING A LARGER-SCALE
ARCING TSTM SEGMENT STRETCHING FROM WRN HOPKINS COUNTY INTO UNION
COUNTY KY.  THE ORIENTATION OF THIS BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS
BECOME NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD OBSERVED
BY THE CURRENT WSR-88D VAD AT PADUCAH...SUGGESTING THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

FARTHER TO THE SW...A BAND OF TSTMS FROM N OF DYR TO NEAR BVX HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...THOUGH A 58 MPH WIND GUST
WAS OBSERVED AT 0230Z IN PARAGOULD AR.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE TREND
TO CONTINUE AMID A GRADUALLY COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
AS SUCH...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 07/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36718771 36208833 36238920 36118995 35829059 35769109
            36059123 36589018 37008948 37368876 38098845 38308816
            38558747 38448685 37868664 37418677 36848742 36718771
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