[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132145
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-132345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...WRN VA...SRN WV...NERN
TN...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410...412...

VALID 132145Z - 132345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
410...412...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...INTO WW 412.
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 410 AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SWRN AREAS WHERE NEW CONVECTION WILL POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSTREAM
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 410/412 IF THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 2130Z...AN EXPANSIVE BOWING MCS WAS PROGRESSING
E/SEWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND TOWARDS THE
PIEDMONT REGION. WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS SOMEWHAT LESS
FAVORABLE...IT IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG AND A WELL-MIXED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST EAST OF THE CURRENT
WATCHES. AS A RESULT...AN AREAL EXTENSION FOR WW 412 WAS MADE TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE RNK CWA WITHIN WV.
MOREOVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 410...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS YIELDING
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /UPWARDS OF 40-45 KTS PER MESOANALYSIS AND
REGIONAL VWP DATA/. ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING
NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL KY...NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UTILIZING THIS
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...AS WELL AS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THUS...MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
HERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
HERE AS WELL...FOR POTENTIAL NEW WW ISSUANCE OR AREAL EXTENSION INTO
PORTIONS OF TN.

..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/13/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37828575 37388436 37318303 38798138 38057932 36587957
            35638239 35748428 37108645 37828575
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