[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121737
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-122000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE AND EAST TN/FAR NORTH GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121737Z - 122000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE AND EAST TN AND FAR
NORTH GA...POTENTIALLY BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CORES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAD WEAKENED THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY ALLOWING FOR
NEW SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL KY SSEWD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EAST TN TO FAR NORTH GA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
GENERALLY DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM
FRONT ANALYZED ON A MID-DAY SURFACE MAP EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL IND THROUGH CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
/BETWEEN BNA AND CSV/ INTO NORTH GA.  DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SURFACE HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES
AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY
ALREADY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE THAT LIKELY AIDED
TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MO LAST NIGHT AND WAS NOW MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL KY TOWARD MIDDLE AND EAST TN.  FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS
STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR.

..PETERS/HART.. 07/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37428568 36908511 36118465 35078378 34438364 34118434
            34298507 34618554 35278598 36358672 37248664 37428568
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