[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022250
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN
KY...AND MUCH OF TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022250Z - 030045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NRN AR/SRN MO TO WRN TN/KY...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR. ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MLCAPE RANGES
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG PER RAP MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING OVER KY/TN
EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...MAY BE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE
LIFT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG PER AREA VWPS...BUT 25-35 KT OF WLY WINDS
IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAINLY
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
OCCASIONAL/BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...SUCH AS ONE RECENTLY
OBSERVED OVER BARREN COUNTY KY...MAY ALSO OCCUR. LIMITED EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING
SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY MUCH BEYOND CURRENT
LEVELS. REGARDLESS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED EXPECTED THREAT.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36679028 36868818 37028584 36928488 36178426 35128445
            35018562 35048820 35059008 36159116 36679028
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