[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161451
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...SRN OH...KY...WV...WRN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 161451Z - 162045Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SSEWD
TODAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE OH VALLEY. IN
RESPONSE...A 50 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT MARKEDLY INCREASES. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
JACKSON KY AT 18Z SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
NEAR 500 MB WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE EXTENDING THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER FROM BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO NEAR 850 MB. THIS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW. SFC TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES F AT THE OH RIVER TO THE UPPER TEENS
NEAR THE KY-TN STATE-LINE. THE PROFILE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS MAKING HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER SWD TO THE KY-TN STATE-LINE.
THIS HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN
MTNS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/COHEN.. 02/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36648418 36668747 36688864 36768914 37118930 37798900
            38378789 39008544 39108316 38908085 38577962 37707965
            37008093 36648418



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