[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281438
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-281545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0838 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / WRN-MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281438Z - 281545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE SQUALL LINE LOCATED OVER
NERN MS INTO WRN TN/MO BOOTHEEL REGIONS.  A COMPACT/INTENSE
MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY MIDDAY
WITH 75 KT H5 FLOW MOVING NEWD FROM MS INTO THE TN VALLEY.  VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 60+ KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS DESPITE INITIALLY POOR TO MARGINAL BUOYANCY.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34358813 34948817 35228860 35958887 36398865 36568802
            36648714 36428667 35758630 34358595 34318604 34358813
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