[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618


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