[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
            36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094


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