[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Apr 10 01:54:56 CDT 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 100654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100654
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-100830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 100654Z - 100830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS
GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WAYNE TO
ROBERTSON COUNTIES IN MIDDLE TN.  WHILE SPECIFIC FORCING MECHANISMS
FOR THIS ACTIVITY ARE NOT READILY APPARENT...RADAR DATA HINT AT A
POSSIBLE WEAK MCV PRESENT OVER WRN TN WHICH COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR.  THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST WITH
MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  WHILE THE CURRENT
NASHVILLE VAD INDICATES SOME WEAKNESS /I.E. 40-45 KT/ IN THE SWLY
WIND FIELD AT AROUND 6 KM...SHEAR IS GENERALLY QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1
KM VALUES OF AROUND 20 M/S.  AS SUCH...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST SHOULD STORMS
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

..MEAD.. 04/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35098792 36338745 36668674 36648562 36498459 35508500
            35078540 34988618 35098792

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather