[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Wed Apr 8 13:56:28 CDT 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 081855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081855
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TN...WRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081855Z - 082100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL KY. WHILE OVERALL FORCING IS A BIT
NEBULOUS...FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK
WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH RECENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THE AREA IS UNCAPPED. AS A RESULT...THE ACTIVITY
WHICH IS LIKELY INITIATING IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED...TAPPING INTO SBCAPE AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BULK SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY
PRECLUDES HIGH WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36818425 36478451 36228500 36198644 36298781 36668891
            37008885 37268844 37898665 38008644 38168554 38188525
            38198470 38018404 37748389 37448400 36818425

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