[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021650
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN AND NE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021650Z - 021815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
THE NE AR NEWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
MO WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY. A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS SFC
TEMPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MLCAPE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 1500
J/KG RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WRN KY AND WRN
TN SUGGESTING INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN IL AND ECNTRL MO. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SHORT-TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO DEVELOP A BAND OF
CONVECTION FROM SRN IL SWWD INTO SE MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS...SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. THE
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   35198944 35099044 35309108 35679151 36569131 38328926
            38828701 38258629 37618644 36848771 35968879 35198944


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