[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140341
KYZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN KY / E-CNTRL TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140341Z - 140445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /45-55 MPH/ ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING QLCS.  IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT THE QLCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES INTO ERN KY/TN WITH THE OVERALL THREAT BECOMING LESS AND
INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA TRENDS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE QLCS ACROSS KY AND TN.
7 KM CAPPI RADAR DATA SHOW THE QLCS VOID OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY...SIGNALING WEAKENED UPDRAFTS...FROM THE AL/TN BORDER
NWD.  LESSENING INSTABILITY AND MORE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS/ WITH EWD EXTENT ADDITIONALLY
SUPPORTS THE NOTION THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
FURTHER.  DESPITE THE MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...STRONG DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE QLCS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS
AS IT MOVES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN.  GIVEN THE MODESTLY
MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A LOCALIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS
LOW-END SEVERE GUST THREAT MAY CONTINUE BUT THE NEED FOR A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN DOUBT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35508507 35758545 38498554 38808493 38798401 38428355
            35858378 35598425 35508507



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