[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132019
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-132145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 535...

VALID 132019Z - 132145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 535 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 535.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES SPREADING EWD/NEWD...PRECEDED
BY 67-68F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODEST DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS
SUPPORTING AROUND 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WHILE SFC PRESSURE FALLS
ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER...PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF
2.0-2.5 MB PER 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE QLCS -- PERHAPS SOMEWHAT
DIURNALLY INFLUENCED -- ARE A REFLECTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THESE FACTORS WILL BREED CONTINUED EWD
TRANSLATION OF THE OVERALL QLCS AT LARGE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW SAMPLED BY PAH VWP...THE PRESENCE OF
45-50 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR AND AROUND 30-35 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE QLCS WITH DMGG WINDS ENHANCED BY
MESOVORTICES...WHICH WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING TORNADOES.
PADUCAH BASE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
RELATED LEWP STRUCTURES ALONG THE LINE.

..COHEN.. 10/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38958959 39158921 38988868 38388817 36828771 36518826
            36788906 38478967 38958959


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