[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131305
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA....AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131305Z - 131500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO TO SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA AND WRN KY.  THE
GREATER WW ISSUANCE POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH EWD EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN THE NRN EXTENT OF A QLCS MOVING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AR WERE TRACKING NEWD AT 35-40 KT.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
EXISTS OVER SERN MO...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ONGOING
STORMS. HOWEVER...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO
EXIST INTO SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA AND WRN KY WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS
IN CLOUDS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT BOTH QLCS STRUCTURE
AND SUPERCELLS...IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
LINE OF STORMS.  THUS...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR NEW WATCH
POTENTIAL WITH E/NEWD EXTENT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36499213 37429194 37979049 38398944 38458771 38328741
            37718716 37028723 36668743 36528827 36499213


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