[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062028
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TN...MS...AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062028Z - 062130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE IF AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION
IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...STRONGER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY IN RECENT HOURS AS CI CANOPY AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR THE AREA. SOMEWHAT MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE
ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG WEAK RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...HEIGHT FALLS...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRUSH THE REGION AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. THESE INFLUENCES MAY
ACT TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR
SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. GENERALLY WEAK AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD TEMPER ANY TORNADO THREAT BUT A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL. ACTIVITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH A WATCH POSSIBLE IF THESE
TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT.

..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34908846 35768719 35628601 34468598 33808697 33378854
            34188935 34908846


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