[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251546
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-251815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN NC...SRN/WRN
SC...NRN/ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251546Z - 251815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
CONVECTION DEEPENING WITHIN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED
FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CNTRL SC AND OFF
THE COAST. LIGHTING DATA SUGGEST INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE -- E.G. MLCAPE CURRENTLY AROUND
500-1500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z BNA/FFC/CHS RAOBS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH ONLY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL ALSO ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND
SUFFICIENT HIGH-LEVEL VENTILATION. A FEW PERSISTENT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE PROVIDED 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NWLY/S AIDING
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE INFLUENCE OF AN ONLY WEAK UPSTREAM PERTURBATION APPROACHING FROM
THE MID-MS VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE LACK OF EVEN
STRONGER BUOYANCY...ANY SVR RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   31658139 32788279 34418493 35918679 35798457 34688201
            33677996 32957948 31658139



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