[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141556
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141556Z - 141800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SUGGESTS WW ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIKELY THROUGH NOON.

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF-COAST REGION
SHOWS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ATTM...AHEAD OF A VORT MAX NOW
CROSSING THE NERN TX/ERN OK VICINITY.  WHILE CLOUD COVER --
ESPECIALLY INTO MS/AL -- IS LIMITING HEATING TO SOME
DEGREE...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED DIURNAL INCREASE IN CAPE /ATTM INTO THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/.

WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AND
AREA VWPS HINTING AT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FLOW MAGNITUDE ABOVE 900
MB -- CONFIRMING A STRENGTHENING TREND IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PER
12Z MODEL FORECASTS -- THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH TIME.  AS THE
OBSERVED/GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION /PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY/
CONTINUES...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33218728 33138890 33648929 35248837 36748639 36768471
            35678508 33218728



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather