[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Jun 10 10:32:16 CDT 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 101534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101534
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-101730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN TO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101534Z - 101730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL AND MIDDLE TN
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONE OR
MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A FRAGMENTED BOWING-PORTION OF A BROAD SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TN...AS FAST AS 40-45 KT AS OF 1515Z. WHILE THIS PORTION OF THE LINE
IS LIKELY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...OVER TIME...A WARMING/MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER /ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS APPROACH THE MIDDLE 70S F/ COULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-MORNING SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO EAST-CENTRAL KY TO
THE SOUTH OF NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MODEST /SUB-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTH...AN INCIPIENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION MAY ALREADY BE
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST AL AS OF 1530Z
FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW. CONTEMPORARY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BIRMINGHAM...TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOWER 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT
15Z...INDICATE NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WITH AROUND 2300 J/KG OF
MLCAPE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   36618796 37958694 38338552 37168439 33158632 32638771
            34458741 35268737 36038735 36618796

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