[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271519
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
            37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578



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