[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141710
TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-141915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MUCH OF KY/TN...FAR WRN VA...FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141710Z - 141915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 17Z...TSTM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM
NERN AR INTO PARTS OF KY AND TN...IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR AN LEX-EKQ
LINE IN KY...WHERE AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND WILL EXIST GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
AROUND 30-40 KTS.

THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
RAIN-COOLED AIR TO THE EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN AR/WRN KY/WRN TN AS FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS AND SMALL BOWING
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
EXIST ACROSS NERN AR/SERN MO/WRN TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

..DEAN/HART.. 07/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35879159 36429064 37558624 37838340 37568246 37018243
            36358246 35968269 35278646 35119140 35879159



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