[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020132
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-020400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...FAR NWRN
AL...FAR NRN MS...FAR ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020132Z - 020400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND THE TN VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS FROM CNTRL/WRN KY TO NERN AR EXHIBITS PRINCIPAL
FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER S-CNTRL KY AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TN WITH THE
TRAILING CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO FAR NERN
AR. THE MAJORITY OF THIS LINE HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO MID-LEVEL WLYS
OF 20-25 KT PER AREA VWPS AND 00Z BNA RAOB...WITH PRIMARY SEWD/SWD
MOTION ACROSS TN AND NERN AR DRIVEN BY PROPAGATION INTO
MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR. AS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS
EXPERIENCES NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER -- IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35379085 35768846 36778654 37348511 36988450 35708608
            34908781 34759054 35379085



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