[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202329 COR
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/FAR
SERN MO/NERN AR/NWRN AL/SRN IL/SRN AND CENTRAL IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 202329Z - 210015Z

CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC TO EXTEND NWD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 11...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.  A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 11
AND WW 13 INTO MIDDLE TN...CENTRAL KY...AND SRN-CENTRAL IND.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUING TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF THE MS
VALLEY.  DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER
STRENGTHENING FROM AR TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING
ESEWD THROUGH SWRN KS TO NWRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVES
INTO THE BASE OF THE ALREADY STRONG MS VALLEY LONGWAVE TROUGH.  THE
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS PARENT TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A 986 MB
SURFACE LOW IN ERN IA SWD THROUGH WRN IL...SERN MO...TO CENTRAL AND
SWRN AR.

ALTHOUGH A 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED A CAP AT 700
MB...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP /7-8 C PER KM/ WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1 INCH/ FOR EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A BAND
OF STORMS DOES EXIST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDED FRO WRN KY
/OHIO COUNTY/ SWWD INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORM SIGNATURES HAVE TENDED TO BE LINEAR OR QUASI-LINEAR WITHIN
THIS BAND...RADAR DATA SHOWED EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE
SEGMENTS.  ADDITIONAL BROKEN AND DISCRETE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SRN IL AND FAR SERN MO/NERN AR.
AREA WSR-88D VADS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS/SHEAR SUGGEST TORNADOES
WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE EVENING...AS THE PARENT TROUGH
UNDERGOES FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LOCATED ON THE ERN PART OF WW 11 /NRN MIDDLE TN AND SWRN KY/ AND
EXPECTED FAVORABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT SPREADING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS THIS EVENING...A NEW WW WILL BE CONSIDERED E OF WW 11 AND WW
13.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...
PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...

LAT...LON   34149089 35409032 36309004 37159009 37909009 38298947
            38598831 38498697 38568679 39588672 40078659 40128488
            39898466 38378463 37668445 34998552 34968755 33688842
            33738916 33829031 34149089


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather