[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311825
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-312030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AL...NRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN
NC...SWRN VA...SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311825Z - 312030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS BENEATH
MID/HIGH-LEVEL TRANSLUCENT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERMIT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN A MOIST...UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
EXTENSIVE FETCH OF DEEP-LAYER SWLYS E OF A MS-VALLEY TROUGH...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES PER GPS
DATA ENHANCING THE RISK FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OWING TO WATER
LOADING. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF FLOW IN THE
1-3-KM LAYER PER AREA VWPS MAY FURTHER INCREASE THE RISK FOR STRONG
TSTM WINDS VIA CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST COULD PRODUCE A LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUST. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
STRONGER INSOLATION...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34088533 33868642 34228727 35588677 37168475 37168271
            36608156 35478277 34088533



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