[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290012
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND
SERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...111...

VALID 290012Z - 290145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108...111...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING FROM SWRN THROUGH ECNTRL MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL INTO
SCNTRL AND SERN TN. PDS TORNADO WATCH 108 WILL BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH /POSSIBLY PDS/ BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF
02Z AND THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO AL.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STORMS INCLUDING NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS PERSIST
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN VICINITY OF A 50-60 KT SSWLY
LLJ FROM SWRN MS NEWD THROUGH NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. WARM SECTOR
IS VERY LARGE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM MS EWD INTO
GA...AND HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LARGE ALONG BROAD LLJ AXIS. BIRMINGHAM
00Z RAOB INDICATED 1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 270 SFC-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY. SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SOME STORMS MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE LINEAR MODE. THIS SUGGESTS OVERALL NUMBER OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES COLD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN LIKELY.

..DIAL.. 04/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35698406 33678709 31708968 31789114 32808985 33908891
            35368771 35698406



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