[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281705
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-281900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA...WRN/NRN MS...NWRN AL...SRN
MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281705Z - 281900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH IS HIGHLY PROBABLE WITHIN NEXT HOUR ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BKN/SW-NE
BAND AND INTENSIFY THROUGH AFTN WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA...BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH SWWD EXTENT AT SFC.
MEANWHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING POCKETS OF RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE AREAS THAT WILL FOSTER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF INSOLATION AND
QUICK SBCINH REMOVAL.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS
CORRIDOR SUGGEST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BUILD NEWD.  IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA INVOF
MLU...AND IF NOT ALREADY SFC-BASED...MAY BECOME SO SHORTLY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM NEWD ACROSS MS INTO SRN MID
TN AND NWRN AL AS AIR MASS THERE DESTABILIZES IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EACH ARE FAVORABLE AND WILL REMAIN
SO...WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  EFFECTIVE SRH SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH AFTN TO AROUND 300 J/KG...AND VWP ALREADY SHOW
300-500 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH OVER NERN MS.

..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31839293 33109109 33899025 34938907 35578817 35738717
            35738680 35548640 35148622 34618635 33918718 32908827
            32118944 31619029 31419147 31549218 31839293



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