[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112144
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-112245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR NWRN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112144Z - 112245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF
WRN/MIDDLE TN AS A SMALL LINE SEGMENT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. DUE TO
THE BRIEF TEMPORAL WINDOW AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW
DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED
LINE SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS EVOLVING NEAR THE MO/TN
BORDER. CURRENT PROPAGATION IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 25 KT TOWARDS THE
ESE...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DRIER
BOUNDARY-LAYER /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-50S F/ AND LESSER
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. AMBIENT FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALSO REMAINS
QUITE WEAK...ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KT PER REGIONAL VWP DATA.

DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO
SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. HAIL APPEARS
TO BE A LESSER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW
INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 04/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35468799 35548882 35768977 36009032 36219043 36519023
            36668977 36478862 36278787 36058754 35588766 35468799



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