[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022020
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-022245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022020Z - 022245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANYWHERE WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA TO
NORTHERN MS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY...AND SOUTHERN IL. WHILE THE
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PENDING
INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF STRONGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO TO ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY. TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY PERSISTED
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. IN SPITE OF THESE
CLOUDS...THE WARMING/MOISTENING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INITIALLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED FROM EASTERN AR
NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF
ANY SEVERE RISK...ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH MASS CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE IS MODEST
AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT...THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR. PROVIDED THIS
SCENARIO...SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32739210 33479281 35399199 35499196 36759028 37938916
            37718749 35398687 33078932 32609114 32739210


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