[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172316
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MIDDLE TN / ERN KY / SWRN-WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 172316Z - 180015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO ERN KY...WRN PORTIONS OF WV AND POSSIBLY FARTHER E
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER TN VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE WRN HALF OF TN INTO CNTRL KY IS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE /REFERENCE 19Z BNA RAOB/...AIRMASS MODIFICATION FARTHER E
OVER ERN KY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE EVENING
AS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60 DEG F.  VERY STRONG WIND
PROFILES SAMPLED BY OBSERVED RAOBS AND CURRENT 88D VWP DATA WILL
SUPPORT DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS AND A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR A TORNADO--PROVIDED A SUPERCELL MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM THE W.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PROJECTS THE LEADING STORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR NEAR MAMMOTH CAVE WILL EXIT THE ERN
BOUND OF TORNADO WATCH 565 BETWEEN 00Z-01Z.  AS A RESULT...AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED PRIOR TO 0030Z.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36168652 38378383 39288142 38558092 37338229 36118536
            35958625 36168652


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