[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211247
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-211345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE AR...WRN TX...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211247Z - 211345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS NW AR THIS MORNING MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH AS THEY TRACK EWD
TOWARD WRN TN/NRN MS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SOME THIS MORNING
ACROSS NW AR. AS THIS LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKS
EWD...MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT HAS LIMITED SBCAPE DUE TO EARLY CAPPING AS INDICATED BY
12Z BNA RAOB. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH
20-30 KT BULK SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. AT THIS TIME...NO OBSERVED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WW
THIS MORNING.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36399038 36578938 36548839 36238792 35618777 34918798
            34168937 34259079 34619117 36399038


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