[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181240
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-181445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN KY TO FAR NORTHERN
MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181240Z - 181445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TN THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KY AND/OR NORTHERN MS/AL. BOUTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT /INITIALLY ELEVATED/ TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF INCREASING INTENSITY/LINEAR ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
/SINCE 12Z/ ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TN. THESE TRENDS ARE COINCIDENT WITH
THE APPARENT EVOLUTION/EXPANSION OF A SURFACE COLD POOL...WITH AN
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN VIA A VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH AN INITIALLY WEAK
BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG/...THE
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE FEATURED A RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATE PROFILE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40+ KT/...ACCENTUATED
BY 50+ KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM. WHILE THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE RISK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...SCENARIO MAY
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LINEAR ORGANIZATION/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AT
LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN/WARM.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 03/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34738932 35848839 36618701 37268491 36748462 34768661
            34738932



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