[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 270156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270156
TNZ000-KYZ000-270330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 270156Z - 270330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WITH A STRONG/SEVERE MCS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY INTO TN THROUGH LATE
EVENING...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND/OR AN EXTENSION OF WATCH 372
ACROSS KY /SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE 03Z/ MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 03Z/10 PM
CDT.

DISCUSSION...FOCUSED ALONG PRIOR OUTFLOW...UPSCALE MCS GROWTH HAS
OCCURRED ALONG THE OH RIVER NEAR THE INDIANA-KY BORDER...WITH SOME
FORWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE/LESS EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION /INCLUDING
A SOUTHWEST FLANK SUPERCELL/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER NEAR THE IL/KY BORDER AND TOWARD
THE CAPE GIRARDEAU/PADUCAH AREAS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY INTO TN REMAINS WARM/MOIST AND
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLING AROUND 1900 J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD
PERSISTENCE OF THESE POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING CLUSTERS WILL BE
AIDED BY A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND/OR REAR INFLOW...WITH 35-40 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM NOW EVIDENT IN
WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM PADUCAH/EVANSVILLE. GIVEN THIS BACKGROUND FLOW
AND EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION...WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 03Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MAY BEGIN TO TEMPER
THE WIND DAMAGE LIKELIHOOD INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...AN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND/OR TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 372 MAY
BE NEEDED.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35298857 36328864 37068778 37228538 36208416 35308499
            35138707 35298857


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