[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011824
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-012000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KY AND EXTREME
SE IND/SW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011824Z - 012000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A DECAYING EARLY
MORNING QLCS OVER WRN KY/TN. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
70S AND 80S...WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH 18Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TRACKS EWD TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-40 KT
COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CELLS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND LAPSE RATES PERHAPS STEEPEN SLIGHTLY...A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM S-CNTRL KY SWWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN IS INDICATED
BY HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THIS OCCURS...A GREATER THREAT FOR
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS COULD LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34988551 34858627 34988753 35168788 35408798 36058743
            37378640 38518566 39028519 39318484 39308431 39088381
            38588356 37758358 36568410 35348500 34988551


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