[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141846
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-142015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AL...NE MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141846Z - 142015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A BELT OF SMALL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING... CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NWWD FROM NW AL ACROSS NE MS INTO
WRN TN.  THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF RICHEST
MOISTURE /PW VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES/ ESE OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING
WSWWD FROM MO/AR TO KS/OK.  THE CONVECTION IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SELY SHEAR.  THOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR...THE
RICH MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL STORMS WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS.  OVERALL...THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND/OR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
GROUND...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK GIVEN
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.  THUS...WHILE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS OR
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS
A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WATCH.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 07/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34448740 33818718 32988713 32598730 32598782 33228842
            34918913 35448927 35848914 36088887 36118842 35598795
            34448740


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