[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300903
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND NERN...CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 300903Z - 301000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 13.  A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MS...GIVEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST FROM W-E BEYOND THE 10Z EXPIRATION OF WW 13.
MEANWHILE...THE NRN EXTENT OF THE QLCS IN NERN MS AND MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL EXIT THE NRN PORTION OF WW 13 BY 10Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 845Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING EWD AT 25-35 KT...AND EXTENDED FROM MIDDLE TN
/APPROACHING BNA/ SWWD THROUGH NERN TO SWRN MS.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS ALONG AND E OF THESE STORMS WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...STRONG
DEEP LAYER WINDS WERE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-65 KT.
THE DEEP SHEAR VECTORS WERE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LINE OF
STORMS...BUT ALSO CROSSED THE LINE AT A LITTLE ANGLE.  THIS IS
SUPPORTING LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH MORE OF A BROKEN LINE WITH
SRN EXTENT INTO NERN TO SWRN MS. FARTHER NE...REFLECTIVITY WAS
STRONGER ACROSS MIDDLE TN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KY WHERE SUPERCELLS HAD
MERGED EARLIER...PROMOTING A GREATER LINEAR STRUCTURE.  STRONG SLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SUPPORTING VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /WSR-88D
VWP DATA AT NASHVILLE TN AT 842Z INDICATED SFC-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT
AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2 PER S2/.  THUS...IN ADDITION TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT PER THE FAST STORM MOVEMENTS /NEWD AT 50-60
KT/...TORNADOES REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD.

..PETERS.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31519185 33149061 35018906 36258814 36628775 36608619
            35658681 34968737 34998803 33608829 32568840 32188909
            31758946 31329019 31209133 31159162 31519185



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