[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 300319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300319
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-300445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...WRN/CNTRL KY...SRN IND...SRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 300319Z - 300445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOUR. IN ADDITIONALLY...STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME OVER 65 KT...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EWD...A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS
SERN MO AND SRN IL HAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
HOUR. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM NQA AND PAH SHOW WINDS OVER 70 KT AT 3
KFT WITH PAH ALSO SHOWING OVER 100 KT AT 4 KFT. BOTH VADS ALSO SHOW
0-1 KM SRH OVER 600 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SRH OVER 900 M2/S2. THIS
EXTREMELY STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTING EFFECTIVE SRH OF OVER 1000 M2 PER S2 AT 05Z
ACROSS FAR SRN IL AND SWRN KY. PRESSURE FALLS GREATER THAN 4 MB PER
2 HRS WERE NOTED ON 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A VERY
STRONG LINE OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SRN IND.

..MOSIER.. 01/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37089066 38258999 39268799 39798660 39628555 38468511
            36718577 36508748 36448888 36438967 36529057 37089066


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