[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251140
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-251645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN KY/NRN MIDDLE-NERN TN/FAR SWRN
VA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 251140Z - 251645Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION /LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN...LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SLEET/ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SRN-SERN
KY...NRN MIDDLE-NERN TN AND FAR SWRN VA. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO
0.05 TO 0.1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER NRN MIDDLE TN AND POSSIBLY INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KY WILL THEN RISE ABOVE 32 F PRIOR TO 18Z RESULTING IN
THE END OF FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH RAIN SHOULD PERSIST.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NRN/ERN TN AND ACROSS KY TO
FAR SWRN VA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED A MIXTURE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 11Z. THE GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES THUS
FAR ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE AIR MASS INITIALLY BEING DRY PER THE BNA
SOUNDING AT 25/00Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS TN AND KY HAVE BEEN
RISING SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING
AND COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD
BEGIN TO OFFSET THIS WARMING. THUS...SUB-FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
18Z...EXCEPT FOR AREAS W OF A CSV-LOZ-20 NW JKL LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE 32 F PRIOR TO 18Z.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG A 40-55 KT SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING INTO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND SERN KY/SWRN VA AND ASCENT WITHIN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING.

..PETERS.. 01/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36878752 37408692 37768544 37748339 36978182 36418198
            36148265 35868309 35788398 35868528 36278583 36328712
            36468779 36878752


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