[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171738
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST THU JAN 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/BLUE RIDGE MTNS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 171738Z - 172245Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY WET SNOW IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL. AS THIS LOW TRACKS E/NEWD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MORNING GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT THAT PRONOUNCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC COOLING /AOB THE 700
MB LEVEL/ IS OCCURRING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND FREEZING. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE BEING CENTERED NEAR 500 MB WHERE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE MAXIMIZED...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
LARGE DENDRITES WITH OPTIMAL LIQUID WATER CONTENT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
A BAND OF SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY 09Z SREF PROBABILITIES. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF FAR NERN TN INTO FAR SRN WV AND EXPAND EWD
ACROSS SWRN VA/FAR WRN NC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 01/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   36608349 37388214 37808123 38068018 38007982 37787968
            37387982 36608063 35888179 35608259 35808321 35958353
            36288363 36608349


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