[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150551
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF NERN TX...NRN LA...PARTS OF
S-CNTRL/SERN AR...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NRN MS...A SMALL PART OF SRN
MIDDLE TN...FAR NWRN AL

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 150551Z - 151145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING MASS RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS IS
MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SRN LA --
I.E. TO THE W OF WARM-CONVEYOR RELATED PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM
SERN LA NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES
WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OWING TO THE EFFECTS OF THE GLANCING
IMPULSE...AND AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION BECOMES
ESTABLISHED...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF
N-CNTRL LA AND S-CNTRL AR NEWD INTO NERN MS AND PARTS OF SRN MIDDLE
TN/FAR NWRN AL BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.

THE 00Z SHV RAOB DEPICTS DEEP DRY AIR ABOVE THE 800-MB
LEVEL...YIELDING SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION FARTHER W FROM NWRN LA INTO NERN TX.
HOWEVER...TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE 1-2.5-KM-AGL FLOW PER LEDBETTER TX
WIND PROFILER DATA -- LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING THE GLANCING IMPULSE -- SUGGESTS THAT SOME
INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AS FAR W AS FAR
NWRN LA AND NERN TX BY 11Z.

THE 00Z SHV AND JAN RAOBS DEPICT ELEVATED WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES
WELL OVER 3C BETWEEN THE 850- AND 780-MB LEVELS. WITH THESE
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION BEING
REINFORCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP SFC WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES OF 27-32F...DESCENDING ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD COMPLETELY
MELT BEFORE REFREEZING ON CONTACT WITH THE SFC. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE ANTICIPATED ASCENT...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF
0.05 IN/HR WILL BECOME LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO INCREASE THEREAFTER. LOCALIZED RATES TO 0.10
IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN...ESPECIALLY IN ANY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CORES AIDED BY MINIMAL ELEVATED BUOYANCY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AND HIGHEST
FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL LIE WITHIN A 40-70-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR
CENTERED FROM JUST E OF SHV NEWD TO GLH TO JUST N OF TUP. THE
FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

..COHEN.. 01/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32199504 32759452 33759164 35458739 34668795 33738905
            33318985 32949055 32299137 31749298 31769457 32199504



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