[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142312
KYZ000-TNZ000-150415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO NERN KY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 142312Z - 150415Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WITH
RATES OF AROUND 0.05 IN/HR...WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN TOWARD THE OH RIVER IN TANDEM WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF A POLEWARD DIRECTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ENHANCED ELEVATED
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05
IN/HR -- LOCALLY HIGHER IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES. THE WAA WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A MODEST ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OF
COMPLETELY/PARTIALLY MELTING DESCENDING ICE CRYSTALS. HOWEVER...WITH
SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA --
I.E. SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN WHAT IS POSITED BY NAM/GFS/RR
OUTPUT...REFREEZING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE SFC LAYER.

AS SUCH...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD THE
OH RIVER THROUGH 00Z. THIS IS BACKED BY OFFICIAL SFC
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS FROM THE NSSL
PRECIPITATION IDENTIFICATION NEAR THE GROUND /PING/ PROJECT. THESE
INDICATE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVING RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS
MIDDLE TN AND UPSTREAM INTO NRN MS/AL. WITH RELATIVELY MARGINAL
GROUND TEMPERATURES FOR FREEZING...ICING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ON
ELEVATED OBJECTS INCLUDING POWER LINES AND TREES...ALONG WITH METAL
OBJECTS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE NEWD
THROUGH MIDDLE TN TOWARD SRN KY THROUGH 00-02Z IN CORRESPONDENCE
WITH DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION THAT FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE
OF THE IMPULSE. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DECREASED
AREA-WIDE BY LATE EVENING.

..COHEN.. 01/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36858631 38068487 38448393 38308310 37718309 37178352
            36478429 35758510 35248625 35338717 35868725 36858631


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