[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 130019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130018
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...ARKLATEX...FAR SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...

VALID 130018Z - 130215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM SWRN AR
ACROSS CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY NERN AR THROUGH THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM NERN TX ACROSS SWRN AR
AND INTO NRN AR...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES.
STORMS OVER SWRN AR ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING IS IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATES MORE INSTABILITY
THAN RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE. EVEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASING THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
THE SURFACE DEWPOINT TO 65 F STILL YIELDS AROUND 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...AT LEAST QUADRUPLE WHAT THE RAP MODEL WOULD INDICATE. SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN VERY STRONG...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. EFFECTIVE SRH IS OVER 500 M2/S2.

CELLS OVER SWRN AR CURRENTLY SHOW ROTATION. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW. ANY DEVIANT MOTION
JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT MAY GREATLY ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. IF
THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS TOO QUICKLY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY REDUCED.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   33039194 32699254 32639369 32719467 32919493 33429505
            34749377 35839241 36669129 36889053 36868993 36628958
            36068952 34089105 33039194


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather