[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102340
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR WRN KY AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 102340Z - 110145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NERN AR AND SRN
MO THIS EVENING...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...AND A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEY IN RELATION TO WARM ADVECTION WITH A
40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S WITH LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT
FROM SWRN MO INTO CNTRL AR AS OF 2330Z. ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WOULD
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE
STORM WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT OVERSPREADS IT...FROM NERN AR INTO SERN MO. N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS VIRTUALLY ZERO.

SHEAR IS STRONG WITH 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY
FORMING. CONDITIONALLY...QUASI-LINEAR MODES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS
WOULD BE FAVORED CAPABLE OF WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34279157 35059210 35999293 36449248 37299146 37689037
            37678962 37238887 36648874 35998884 35358925 35108954
            34819016 34389073 34199114 34279157


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