[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190226
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-190330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...NRN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...

VALID 190226Z - 190330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN. OVERALL
THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL...AND REMAINING PART OF WW
36 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM WRN TN SWWD
THROUGH NWRN LA. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
NWRN LA INTO ERN TX. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES...AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST OF THETA-E AXIS WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS RESULTED IN VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LLJ IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THETA-E AXIS...AND WINDS IN ERN TX HAVE WEAKENED AND VEERED
TO WSWLY AHEAD OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW TOPPED LINE FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN
WHERE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 02/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30639463 31419391 32039342 33429106 34459002 35228937
            36338833 35128859 32019161 30639463


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