[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061246
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-061745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST FRI DEC 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK...CNTRL/NRN
AR...NWRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 061246Z - 061745Z

SUMMARY...THE ONGOING WINTER MIXED PRECIP EVENT WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE...60-110-MILE-WIDE...
SW/NE-ORIENTED CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...DECAYING CONVECTIVE CORES PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH WRN TX AND WRN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SEED THE
EXTENSIVE SW/NE-ORIENTED WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE OVERLYING THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE IMPINGEMENT OF THE TROUGH ON THE WARM CONVEYOR
WILL ENCOURAGE AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL
TX NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TO SUPPORT
THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PROCESS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING
THE MORNING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
FILL IN ACROSS NWRN TN INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 15Z
AND CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

RAOBS AT 12Z CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z LITTLE ROCK AND
FORT WORTH SOUNDINGS ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 850-700-MB WARM LAYER AROUND 5C
SURMOUNTING SUB-FREEZING SFC-LAYER TEMPERATURES. SUBSTANTIAL ICING
WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES OF
0.05 TO 0.15 INCH PER HOUR A DEFINITIVE POSSIBILITY. BRIEFLY HIGHER
RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.20 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS WITH REMNANT CONVECTION -- SOME POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
WITH TIME...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY N/NW OF THE 32F SFC
ISOTHERM. THIS ISOTHERM EXTENDS FROM WRN KY TO W OF MEMPHIS TO NEAR
LITTLE ROCK AND INTO FAR SERN OKLAHOMA AND NERN TX...AND HAS
EXHIBITED LITTLE NET MOTION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL MOTION FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH NWWD DISPLACEMENT
FROM THE SFC FREEZING LINE...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE WARM LAYER WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT SLEET POTENTIAL --
AND PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW -- AS MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS COOL TO SOME
EXTENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE RATE OF SLEET ACCUMULATION
COULD REACH AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH/HOUR...WITH SNOW RATES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1 INCH/HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO LESSEN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIP SHOULD HAVE BEGUN TAPERING OFF IN SWRN PARTS OF THE MCD
AREA -- INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX -- AROUND 17-18Z.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 12/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32059751 33119790 34989474 36399159 38258743 37728641
            36888710 35938894 34699200 34079483 32609601 32119654
            32059751



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